Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 07 2025 03:18:43

AWUS01 KWNH 070318
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-070916-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 06 2025

Areas affected...much of California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070316Z - 070916Z

Summary...Flood/flash flood potential should continue on at least
an isolated basis through 09Z/1a PST.  An additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall is expected along windward locations of the Sierra, and
locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Flood/flash flood potential is expected to continue
through at least 09Z this evening.  Persistent lift associated
with an upstream mid-level wave west of Oregon continues to
support scattered to widespread shower activity across the region.
 Additionally, strong southerly low-level flow (40-50 knots at
850mb) continues to support local terrain enhancement to rain
rates across windward locations of the Sierra, where hourly rain
rates nearing 0.25 inch were noted per MRMS near/southeast of
Redding.  These rates have contributed to isolated flash flooding
and mudslides.   This regime is expected to persist for several
more hours, with additional rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches
expected.  Wet (and moistening) ground conditions and ongoing
rainfall is expected to continue to foster at least isolated
instances of excessive runoff/flood impacts.

Around/after 09Z, models suggest the low-level flow enhancing
rainfall rates this evening will begin to weaken slightly.=20
Moderate to heavy rainfall should still remain in the area,
although a gradual decrease in the overall coverage of the
heaviest rainfall should commence.  A gradual lessening of the
flash flood risk is also expected during this timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7sio6R-zD-MkEH7oU-5ZcgLLWkA77ovXv8xNE8-FPjMaKLIzGgMa50aRkvVG02OrovOx=
fRjlFcDlzwbRkCjqOCf6qRI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41242187 40582099 39452012 38001937 37381921=20
            37161927 37201984 38132077 38812152 38512191=20
            37612172 36792147 36512163 37682257 40012355=20
            40912315 41172265=20

=3D =3D =3D
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