Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 06 2025 19:41:27

ACUS01 KWNS 061941
SWODY1
SPC AC 061939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley.

....20z Updates...
Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge
Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability
wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have
developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle
Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See
MCD#70 for more information on this threat.

...Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/

....TN and vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front
extending from northwest TN into southern KY.  The air mass along
and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints
now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover
appears to be thinning.  This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg
surface-based CAPE this afternoon.  Most 12z model solutions
indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track
east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening.
Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night,
suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased.  However,
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly
flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete
rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.  A
tornado or two is possible.  The threat may persist after dark in
east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over
the mountains.

$$

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