Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 06 2025 12:53:54 ACUS01 KWNS 061253 SWODY1 SPC AC 061252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ....TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ...Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .