Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 06 2025 09:58:04 ACUS48 KWNS 060957 SWOD48 SPC AC 060956 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ....DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. ...Goss.. 02/06/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .