Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 06 2025 05:42:21

ACUS01 KWNS 060542
SWODY1
SPC AC 060541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across
parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this
morning and later in the afternoon to early evening.

....Southern Appalachians and TN Valley...
Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion
in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of
tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z,
centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA
vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into
mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be
in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will
diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away
over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will
be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability.

A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by
afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side
of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial
activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone,
convection should develop into the northern portion of the
warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack
of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional
zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation.
This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop,
centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon.
Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature
relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But
localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany
this convection as far east as western NC by early evening.

...Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025

$$

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