Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 05 2025 19:46:15

ACUS01 KWNS 051945
SWODY1
SPC AC 051944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible
tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western
West Virginia.

....20z Update...
The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern
Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made
to the overall categorical outlook.

A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely
dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the
lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of
favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse
rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this
time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail.

See previous discussion below for more information.

...Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/

....OH/TN Valleys Tonight...
A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track
across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight.  A transient
low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as
it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark.  Low-level moisture
will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s
spreading northward across TN into KY.  This will lead to a zone of
weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY.  12z Model
guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of
thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period.  Forecast
soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based
with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado.
Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of
hail if a robust updraft can become established.

$$

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