Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 05 2025 16:12:18

ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible
tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western
West Virginia.

....OH/TN Valleys Tonight...
A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track
across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight.  A transient
low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as
it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark.  Low-level moisture
will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s
spreading northward across TN into KY.  This will lead to a zone of
weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY.  12z Model
guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of
thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period.  Forecast
soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based
with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado.
Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of
hail if a robust updraft can become established.

...Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025

$$

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