Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 03 2025 10:05:00 ACUS48 KWNS 031004 SWOD48 SPC AC 031003 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ....DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. ...Goss.. 02/03/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .