Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 03 2025 08:32:41

ACUS03 KWNS 030831
SWODY3
SPC AC 030830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
Low-amplitude flow aloft is forecast to persist across the U.S.
Wednesday, while a short-wave trough initially over the Colorado
vicinity progresses east-northeastward into/across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley area.

At the surface, a very weak surface wave -- along the persistent
west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward from the southern
Plains across the Tennessee Valley area -- is forecast to move
eastward along the boundary with time.  Some minor northward wobble
of the boundary may occur ahead of the low, but little overall
frontal progression is expected through the period.

....Midwest/Ohio Valley/central Appalachians...
As the aforementioned, weak surface wave moves east-northeastward,
ahead of the associated upper disturbance, low-level southerly flow
across the eastern U.S. will result in isentropic ascent of higher
theta-e air atop the persistent surface baroclinic zone.  As DPVA
spreads eastward, the increase in quasigeostropic ascent combined
with weak/elevated destabilization will result in development of
showers and scattered thunderstorms.  Most of the convection is
expected to evolve during the second half of the period, spreading
into the central Appalachians overnight.

At this time, it appears that weak lapse rates will offset the
increase in low-level theta-e advection, resulting in only minimal
elevated CAPE atop the strongly stable boundary layer.  Though shear
will be plenty sufficient to otherwise support organized storms, the
lack likelihood for any surface-based risk, and insufficient
elevated instability to support large hail, suggests that severe
risk will be minimal through the period.

...Goss.. 02/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.