Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 02 2025 23:04:29 AWUS01 KWNH 022304 FFGMPD CAZ000-030200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 603 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2025 Areas affected...Shasta County / northern CA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 022302Z - 030200Z SUMMARY...A narrow and focused band of heavy rain is expected to result in a localized area of flash flooding for portions of Shasta County in and around the Redding metro area. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible with localized additional totals of 3-5 inches through 02Z. DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery from KBBX at 2240Z showed a narrow band (just 2-4 miles wide) of stationary heavy rain occurring just south of downtown Redding, CA. This band has been present for the past 2 to 3 hours and has resulted in 4 to 6 inches of rain, most of which has occurred since 20Z. These rainfall reports have been sourced from a number of Wunderground.com observations with the band just recently shifting south to Redding Regional Airport. The band of heavy rain was located along an axis of strong surface/near-surface convergence co-located with a quasi-stationary front that extended SW to NE across the northern Sacramento Valley. Weak instability may be present with RAP estimates of near 100 J/kg. Little change to the pattern on the regional scale is expected to keep the quasi-stationary front in roughly the same position over the next few hours though some minor wavering of the rainfall axis is expected over the next couple of hours along with possible weakening of the little instability that could be in place. Given the presence of this band of heavy rain across the I-5 corridor near Redding and into the higher terrain of eastern Shasta County, a localized area of flash flooding appears likely with this band. Due to the highly mesoscale nature of this feature, confidence is below average in its longevity but it seems likely to persist for at least another 1-2 hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4FAue9RTzh4i5PUpyW3cLxsADkEMcSbETXUz06rF_bbTk_yK60JiUQSPa9-OGZO58C4g= VO04DZVPTarVWNVVISBa5BE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...STO... ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41082185 40972166 40772163 40642187 40262256=20 40462268 40972208=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .