Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 01 2025 10:01:16

ACUS48 KWNS 011001
SWOD48
SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across
the U.S. through the medium-range period.  By the start of the
period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic
airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly
west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward
into the southern Plains.  Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to
move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime
are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary,
but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through
day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more
substantial uncertainty into the forecast.

At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and
perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north
of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the
central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region.
However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with
a 15% probability area.

...Goss.. 02/01/2025

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