Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 31 2025 00:54:02

ACUS01 KWNS 310053
SWODY1
SPC AC 310052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible
this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley.

....Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over
the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of
the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks
southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of
the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited
today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due
to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much
of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong
shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast
Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50
knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450
m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of
these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado
could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is
expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could
persist into the late evening and early overnight period.

...Broyles.. 01/31/2025

$$

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