Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jan 30 2025 15:34:56 AWUS01 KWNH 301534 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302130- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0008 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1033 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into mid-MS Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 301532Z - 302130Z SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding appear likely to continue from portions of the ArkLaTex into the mid-MS Valley through 21Z. Flash flood coverage is expected to be scattered with peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and additional totals of 2-4 inches are likely over the next 6 hours. DISCUSSION...Widespread areas of moderate to heavy rainfall were ongoing as of 15Z across northeastern TX into central AR and the MO Bootheel. While peak rainfall rates over the past few hours have dropped below 1 in/hr, the steady rainfall over the region since just before midnight has resulted in 3 to 5 inches of observed rainfall from northeastern TX into the Ouachita Mountains and the I-40 corridor. A strong low level jet was present from the ArkLaTex into western AR with VAD wind plot observed speeds of 50-60 kt. Low level warm air advection to the north of a surface warm front (which extended W to E across southern AR) was focusing repeating rounds of moderate to heavy rain from SW to NE along an elevated convergence axis which was located between 925-850 mb from northeastern TX into the northwestern half of AR. While elevated instability to the north of the warm front was, and is expected to remain, weak (<500 J/kg) through the early afternoon, steady rain with rates occasionally peaking above 1 in/hr should maintain areas of flash flooding from portions of the ArkLaTex into the mid-MS Valley over the next 3-6 hours. As a powerful closed low over the southern/central High Plains continues to slowly advance eastward during the afternoon, the low level jet is forecast to maintain its intensity while gradually translating eastward. Diffluent flow aloft and the slow moving to nearly stationary elevated axis of convergence will continue to allow for repeating rounds of heavy rain with occasional rates of 1+ in/hr (but less than 2 in/hr) where pockets of relatively higher instability coincide with training echoes of heavy rain. Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected from portions of southwestern AR into northeastern AR and the adjacent MS Valley. Due to fairly low flash flood guidance values, flash flooding is considered likely. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6pDT3mKLeC3Lx-xR0A--qt9EQ6LYvz1vztxsgzxRgcoq9N1K6r0u4rlXBtPHZyUI6B5P= efYtnkAJhPWWh_oplYOSad0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...SHV... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37388967 37298861 37068807 36648778 36248786=20 35598849 34619099 33649280 33179405 33249540=20 34009560 35969379 37079202=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .