Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jan 30 2025 09:22:54 AWUS01 KWNH 300922 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-301520- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0007 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 421 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Western and Central AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 300920Z - 301520Z SUMMARY...The threat for areas of flash flooding will continue this morning from broken bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms which will occasionally be capable of training over the same area. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar continues to show broken areas of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity impacting areas of central to northeast TX through southeast OK and more recently into areas of western AR. Strong warm air advection with the aid of a strengthening south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 50 kts continues to work in tandem with modest instability, but rather strong moisture convergence for sustainable convection. The flow aloft remains rather divergent out ahead of a deeper layer low center slowly ejecting east out into the southern High Plains, and this along with a triple point low center over northern TX is further helping to concentrate a corridor of rather strong forcing. MUCAPE values remain generally around 1000 J/kg with PWs close to 1.5 inches, and this coupled with at least moderate shear should continue to support some rainfall rates with the stronger storms reaching as high as 1.5 inches/hour. This has been realized over much of the DFW metroplex already where cell-training overnight has yielded rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 5 inches. As shortwave energy ejects off to the northeast across the Arklatex region this morning, the overall axis of stronger warm air advection and moisture transport should also translate off to the northeast. This will help to maintain locally heavy showers and thunderstorms along an axis that will still tend to linger over northeast TX and southeast OK, but should move well downstream into areas of western and central AR going through the morning hours. Given the locally heavy rainfall rates and periodic cell-training concerns, additional rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 4 inches are expected which is also supported by the 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs. Some of these rains will be falling over areas that have already seen locally heavy rainfall overnight, so additional areas of flash flooding will generally be likely this morning and especially over the more urbanized areas. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZQehYyNkVq3vDFLKDg74s0Azc8Jcq8SamPVbRiiYZI4a181TMTI4Rg1VcBklN6Hxhh9= u-kRalLjnzNhSWDyCxIcasw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36009200 35839128 35319103 34489198 33439396=20 32349544 31579663 31269764 31619826 32429817=20 33229756 34439598 35469410 35849292=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .