Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 30 2025 09:09:27

ACUS48 KWNS 300908
SWOD48
SPC AC 300906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6,
with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing
through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of
small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing
westerlies aloft.

During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave
troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great
Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and
into the Canadian Maritimes.  As this occurs, and an associated
surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress
eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the
central Plains/Midwest.  The front will eventually decelerate into
the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday).

Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected.  Day 6, potential for
elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone
-- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances
embedded in the upper westerlies.  While models differ on timing and
intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal
hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of
the period.  At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to
highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in
the background low-amplitude flow field.

...Goss.. 01/30/2025

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