Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 29 2025 19:58:55 ACUS01 KWNS 291958 SWODY1 SPC AC 291957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ....20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ...Weinman.. 01/29/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ....Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ....Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .