Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 29 2025 17:13:55 ACUS02 KWNS 291713 SWODY2 SPC AC 291712 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ....East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ...Leitman.. 01/29/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .