Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 29 2025 09:58:51

ACUS48 KWNS 290958
SWOD48
SPC AC 290957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across
the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S.
is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more
zonal configuration.

A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian
Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend),
and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the
Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week).

In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift
gradually eastward across southern Canada.  As this occurs, an
Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great
Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the
boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly
paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the
CONUS.

With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather
potential appears likely to remain low through the period.  While
some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front,
minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse
rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at
this time should hinder more robust convection through the period.

...Goss.. 01/29/2025

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