Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 28 2025 19:21:26 ACUS03 KWNS 281920 SWODY3 SPC AC 281919 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ....East TX to the Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low/trough and attendant surface front. Southerly low-level flow will allow Gulf moisture to advance northward ahead of the surface front from east TX into MS. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will largely remain near/south of the I-20 corridor, with better quality dewpoints remaining closer to the coast. The corridor of relatively higher dewpoints will also become increasingly narrow/pinched off with north and east extent after 00z. Furthermore, forecast soundings show lackluster midlevel lapse rates with eastward extent. This should result in a fairly confined area of elevated instability sufficient to support organized convection amid strong vertical shear. As such, severe potential is expected to quickly decrease with eastward extent during the nighttime hours. Nevertheless, strong storms are expected to persist along the eastward-advancing surface front through the day across east TX. By late afternoon into early evening, a low-level jet will increase as convection encounters a somewhat more moist boundary layer across LA. This may result in a brief increase in severe potential across portions of LA and adjacent MS when a period of favorable shear overlaps with better instability/quality dew points. Convection will likely remain elevated regardless, but strong to severe gusts are possible, in addition to a few instances of hail. While poor low-level lapse rates and limited surface-based instability will temper the tornado risk, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and curved with the increasing low-level jet around 00z. If low-level thermodynamics evolve more favorably than forecast guidance suggests, a tornado or two may be possible. ...Leitman.. 01/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .