Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 28 2025 17:07:45

ACUS02 KWNS 281707
SWODY2
SPC AC 281706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight.

....Southern Plains...

A southwest flow/warm advection regime is forecast across the
southern Plains on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low/trough migrating
east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies.
East/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf and
southern Plains will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into
portions of central and north TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not
expected to be particularly strong, but a Pacific front is forecast
to sharpen and shift east into central to north TX overnight.

Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight in
conjunction with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This will
aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values to around 500-750
J/kg evident in forecast guidance. Favorable vertical shear, with
effective shear magnitudes greater then 35 kt, and
straight/elongated hodographs above 2 km suggest organized, elevated
thunderstorms are possible. Strong low-level inhibition due to poor
low-level lapse rates and a cool nocturnal boundary layer will
preclude surface-based instability/convection. Nevertheless,
conditions will be favorable for isolated hail with strongest
thunderstorm cores.

Some forecast soundings suggest low-level inhibition may be somewhat
less across eastern portions of the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
area near the very end of the period. While the risk of
surface-based convection is conditional across this area, if a storm
can become so, enlarged/curved low-level hodographs and favorable
low-level shear suggest some risk for a tornado and/or strong wind
gusts could materialize. Given the conditional/low-end nature of the
risk during the last 1-3 hours of the forecast period, will maintain
the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

...Leitman.. 01/28/2025

$$

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