Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 27 2025 19:29:37

ACUS03 KWNS 271929
SWODY3
SPC AC 271928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS....

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts,
will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be
positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday.  Meanwhile,
strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX.  A
deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will
strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and
marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX.
 This will result in increasing potential for showers and
thunderstorms by Wednesday night.

Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and
low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and
overall instability will be limited.  Most 12z model guidance
suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon
and evening, with potential MCS development.  Locally damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this
activity tracks across parts of central TX.

...Hart.. 01/27/2025

$$

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