Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 27 2025 08:30:02 ACUS03 KWNS 270829 SWODY3 SPC AC 270828 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ....Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ...Broyles.. 01/27/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .