Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 26 2025 16:05:55

ACUS01 KWNS 261605
SWODY1
SPC AC 261604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....Synopsis...
The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone
over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward
through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus.
Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the
stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of
lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into
tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in
progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley,
with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest
thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an
increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX,
with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley
tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven
by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small
hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts.

...Squitieri.. 01/26/2025

$$

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