Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 26 2025 05:55:48 ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260554 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ....Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ...Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .