Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 25 2025 17:10:43

ACUS02 KWNS 251710
SWODY2
SPC AC 251708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline.
No severe threat is expected.

....Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California
coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the
eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will
encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the
Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support
scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates
overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of
small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer
speed shear.

Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked
cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid
50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km
low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg
range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become
just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent
charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes.
Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher
0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical
vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be
completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too
low to support severe probabilities at this time.

...Squitieri.. 01/25/2025

$$

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