Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 25 2025 05:36:12

ACUS01 KWNS 250536
SWODY1
SPC AC 250534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys
of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will
also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest
Louisiana during the latter half of the period.

....California...

Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a
500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento
Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to
develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected.
Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg
MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops
will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk
for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this
activity should remain rather isolated.

....Texas/Louisiana...

Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central
Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any
meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current
water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level
height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears
low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential
convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into
northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to
advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest
adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb.
Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail
risk.

...Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025

$$

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