Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 21 2025 16:15:27

ACUS01 KWNS 211614
SWODY1
SPC AC 211612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place
across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently
centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift
eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over
the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is
anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and
associated stability dominating the sensible weather.

A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the
Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm
sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf
Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in
south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most
likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given
the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase
hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes
are possible throughout the period.

...Mosier/Thornton.. 01/21/2025

$$

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