Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 21 2025 04:31:05

ACUS11 KWNS 210431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210430=20
NYZ000-211030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of far western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 210430Z - 211030Z

SUMMARY...At least 2-3 inch/hour snowfall rates should continue past
sunrise with an intense lake-effect snow band.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KTYX radar imagery show an intense,
steady-state lake-effect snow band persisting across Jefferson and
Lewis Counties in far western NY. This snow-band is benefiting from
an optimal fetch of moisture off of Lake Ontario, where 8+ C/km 0-3
km lapse rates are in place. As such, convective snowfall within
this lake-effect band should persist past sunrise, as shown by the
latest high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, given the
convective nature of the band, and degree of saturation in the
dendritic growth zone, snowfall rates at least in the 2-3 inch/hour
range are expected through the remainder of tonight.

...Squitieri.. 01/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Gt6uW_R-kKsy7RuFHK9ghj_agOO-IVM9TtGxzutYqvZFtYNCuuaE5l91Sg2qZq7m0-yqdBan=
nQpcb0gW3eaJa_4-TI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43977634 44027567 43947519 43697514 43547540 43587581
            43617612 43647630 43977634=20


=3D =3D =3D
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