Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0044
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 21 2025 04:17:05

ACUS11 KWNS 210417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210416=20
NYZ000-210815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of far western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 210416Z - 210815Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow should continue into the early
morning hours, with 3 inch/hour intermittent snowfall rates likely.

DISCUSSION...The lake-effect snow-band has taken a more
southwest-to-northeast orientation over the past hour or so, with
heavy snow recently reported as far south as the Dunkirk Airport.
04Z mesoanalysis shows increased boundary-layer convergence and
moistening along a northern Chautaugua to Erie County line, which
will support continued heavy snowfall rates within the main band.
Snowfall accumulations over very short time periods via reports
suggest that near 3 inch/hour snowfall rates may be occurring with
this snow band. With the 04Z mesoanalysis showing 7.5 C/km 0-3 km
lapse rates present over water (where a long moisture fetch is in
place), 2-3 inch/hour snowfall rates may continue into the early
morning hours, as also suggested by latest high-resolution guidance
consensus.

...Squitieri.. 01/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7iMFNX-IWUiHtamZZ4tNRL1r0DJ2U7GWEmY1quls-j9QZzzVG7v_kLDy9axYKrUkBsQY2vgXF=
hV80t2hgF3F--iNk18$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42467965 42677916 42857882 42937844 42827827 42577845
            42407890 42337923 42357944 42357954 42467965=20


=3D =3D =3D
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