Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0041
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 20 2025 22:40:03

ACUS11 KWNS 202239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202239=20
NYZ000-210245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of far western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 202239Z - 210245Z

SUMMARY...Instances of heavy lake-effect snow should continue
through the evening, with 2 inch/hour snowfall rates possible,
especially over Erie County, New York.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer flow (especially closer to the surface) has
become more aligned with the long axis of Lake Erie over the past
couple of hours given the passing of a weak surface trough. The long
fetch of appreciable low-level moisture off of the lake waters will
support lake effect snow into the evening hours. 6-7 C/km low-level
lapse rates (evident via 22Z mesoanalysis) will support continued
heavier snowfall (as was recently observed at the DKK ASOS), with
snowfall rates potentially approaching 2 inches/hour at times.

...Squitieri.. 01/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ReK5YF6PIQ1Hfet7W30Af2Q0kT_K0ig6AeOxWGiGwdWuPSv_dl0svmz3a1jmY3cHzuyX3PI7=
dkZuuHkspP79RzlnNs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42667911 42767897 42817890 42907887 42927861 42777847
            42617851 42527878 42517889 42577899 42667911=20


=3D =3D =3D
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