Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 19 2025 00:57:53 ACUS01 KWNS 190057 SWODY1 SPC AC 190055 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ....01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ...Kerr.. 01/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .