Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 18 2025 07:09:39

FOUS30 KWBC 180708
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...

A corridor of moisture convergence in the warm sector of a
developing Southeast U.S. surface low, in the presence of PWs on
the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, will fuel the development of
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Florida and across the southern tier of counties in Georgia. The
majority of the heavier rainfall should happen between 00Z and 12Z
Sunday when mixed layer CAPE rises into the 250-750 J/kg range with
southwesterly flow from the eastern Gulf. This could result in
rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour with the most
persistent cells. Some of the CAM guidance indicates swaths of 2-3
inch QPF during this period, and this may lead to some minor
instances of flooding in poor drainage areas. The axis of heavy
rainfall is expected to become more progressive by 12Z Sunday and
beyond across the central Florida Peninsula.

Hamrick

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 21 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4O0al9HlFREn6tMQhmPlQivyRu8Hw3iiLLbqnDt9lJI6=
A8721XCMSC7h7oQvUBeutbyBMVQa8HlE-ru4mOctG_1QcCk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4O0al9HlFREn6tMQhmPlQivyRu8Hw3iiLLbqnDt9lJI6=
A8721XCMSC7h7oQvUBeutbyBMVQa8HlE-ru4mOctlkM-LQA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4O0al9HlFREn6tMQhmPlQivyRu8Hw3iiLLbqnDt9lJI6=
A8721XCMSC7h7oQvUBeutbyBMVQa8HlE-ru4mOctvtaeW9o$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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