Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 18 2025 00:48:56

FOUS30 KWBC 180048
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jan 18 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...

A corridor of moisture convergence in the warm sector of a
developing Southeast U.S. surface low, in the presence of 1.5"+
precipitable water values, will fuel the development of showers
and thunderstorms. Inflow at 850 hPa ranges between 30-60 kts and
MU CAPE should rise into the 250-500 J/kg range. If instability
verified on the high end of the range, organized convection in the
form of lines and mesocyclones would be possible. Given the above,
rainfall totals could reach 1.5" in an hour where cells repeat.
The guidance suggests that local amounts towards 3" are possible,
which would require a couple hours of training. Believe there is
enough there to maintain the Marginal Risk area at the present
time, but any heavy rain-related issues would be confined to urban
areas.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Hamrick



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jgv2HxS0PQdiLd6_9-h4IrI7ts4rJS4Yd6Vu1oSglgX=
kX5mrXZh87zSJLaQFt0-Jb4Lz7ktaBUeOzk4cX_YyRXEWP0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jgv2HxS0PQdiLd6_9-h4IrI7ts4rJS4Yd6Vu1oSglgX=
kX5mrXZh87zSJLaQFt0-Jb4Lz7ktaBUeOzk4cX_YzGqoJzw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9jgv2HxS0PQdiLd6_9-h4IrI7ts4rJS4Yd6Vu1oSglgX=
kX5mrXZh87zSJLaQFt0-Jb4Lz7ktaBUeOzk4cX_Ydi2u_eE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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