Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 16 2025 19:44:02

ACUS01 KWNS 161943
SWODY1
SPC AC 161942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z Update...
Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on
trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible
over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning;
however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited
spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.

...Moore.. 01/16/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern
CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high
pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast,
and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm
potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One
exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist
late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still,
with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present,
overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than
10%.

Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and
northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated
weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry
thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for
lightning.

$$

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