Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 12 2025 21:15:39

FOUS30 KWBC 122115
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2025

DAY 1
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 12 2025 - 12Z MON JAN 13 2025

THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.

....LOUISIANA COAST...
A FRONTAL WAVE SPAWNED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING BETWEEN
A SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR CUBA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.5" OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 20-35 KTS.
DESPITE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...THE OVERALL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE HELD IN CHECK BY MEAGER=20
INSTABILITY AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 12/00Z=20
HREF GUIDANCE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE 11/12Z RUN THAT SHOW=20
THE PROBABILITY OF 0.5"+ TOTALS DON'T PERSIST ANYWHERE ALONG OR=20
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. THERE WAS A=20
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND A SUBTLE DECREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN DECREASING NEIGHBORHOOD=20
PROBABILITIES FOR 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED WITH THE=20
PREVIOUS RUNS.

BANN

DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON JAN 13 2025 - 12Z TUE JAN 14 2025

THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.

BANN/CHURCHILL

DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 14 2025 - 12Z WED JAN 15 2025

THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.

BANN/CHURCHILL


DAY 1 THREAT AREA: https://urldefense.com/v3/__HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GO=
V/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT__;!!DZ3fjg!-uRxmlCii_ax6QsQ23Rg5QEf6KX4FLqUU14nycAery4N=
1_jLyEJKDUCilpihydtGd9UnluTxrKPmXZLbZlPjt_zpstQ$=20
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: https://urldefense.com/v3/__HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GO=
V/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT__;!!DZ3fjg!-uRxmlCii_ax6QsQ23Rg5QEf6KX4FLqUU14nycAery4N=
1_jLyEJKDUCilpihydtGd9UnluTxrKPmXZLbZlPjOQPVico$=20
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: https://urldefense.com/v3/__HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GO=
V/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT__;!!DZ3fjg!-uRxmlCii_ax6QsQ23Rg5QEf6KX4FLqUU14nycAery4N=
1_jLyEJKDUCilpihydtGd9UnluTxrKPmXZLbZlPjOB7g_7k$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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