Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 12 2025 18:27:29

ACUS03 KWNS 121826
SWODY3
SPC AC 121825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

....Discussion...
Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained
near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland
across the northern Great Basin during this period.  To its south, a
low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing
becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies.
Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest
embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around
-24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z
Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well
offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave
perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging
centered over the Caribbean.  As one lead impulse digs southeast of
the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid
Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast
to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic
Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  This will reinforce
already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions.

...Kerr.. 01/12/2025

$$

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