Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 12 2025 17:03:30 ACUS02 KWNS 121703 SWODY2 SPC AC 121701 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ...Kerr.. 01/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .