Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 12 2025 05:22:19

ACUS01 KWNS 120522
SWODY1
SPC AC 120520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will
remain negligible across the nation through the period.

....Synopsis...
A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern
MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across
much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening
west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of
the MS River.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great
Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing
cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and
eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low
ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM.

....North-Central Gulf Coast...
Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period
over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of
LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms
well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may
develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs
atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate
saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while
elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation
shield, severe storms are unlikely.

...Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025

$$

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