Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 11 2025 22:37:08

FOUS30 KWBC 112236
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025

....Louisiana Coast...
A frontal wave spawned by an upper level disturbance moving between
a Southwest U.S. upper level low and a subtropical ridge near Cuba
is expected to bring precipitable water values up to 1.5" on the
heels of south to southwest 850 hPa flow from the Gulf of Mexico of
20-30 kts. Instability appears meager -- ML CAPE of perhaps a few
hundred J/kg -- and the system is progressive. The 12z HREF
probabilities show that 0.5"+ totals don't persist anywhere along
or near the Louisiana coast for more than an hour or two, and that
while there is a high probability of 2"+ totals, the probability of
3"+ totals is quite low. The probability of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance is considered to be non-zero, but less than 5
percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AXENTtYgf4DA5sV139n3_ejugEfQd7uXMLAw3VPP1lL=
f4Lb4iK0zuOH0QsAs-eP82jn-97ESgEzR9UZ6jbZvb-lo_4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AXENTtYgf4DA5sV139n3_ejugEfQd7uXMLAw3VPP1lL=
f4Lb4iK0zuOH0QsAs-eP82jn-97ESgEzR9UZ6jbZM9ioWAs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AXENTtYgf4DA5sV139n3_ejugEfQd7uXMLAw3VPP1lL=
f4Lb4iK0zuOH0QsAs-eP82jn-97ESgEzR9UZ6jbZfjNGSiE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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