Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 11 2025 19:11:21

FOUS30 KWBC 111910
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025

....Louisiana Coast...
A frontal wave spawned by an upper level disturbance moving between
a Southwest U.S. upper level low and a subtropical ridge near Cuba
is expected to bring precipitable water values up to 1.5" on the=20
heels of south to southwest 850 hPa flow from the Gulf of Mexico of
20-30 kts. Instability appears meager -- ML CAPE of perhaps a few=20
hundred J/kg -- and the system is progressive. The 12z HREF=20
probabilities show that 0.5"+ totals don't persist anywhere along=20
or near the Louisiana coast for more than an hour or two, and that=20
while there is a high probability of 2"+ totals, the probability of
3"+ totals is quite low. The probability of rainfall exceeding=20
flash flood guidance is considered to be non-zero, but less than 5
percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8v1hQa5w7kGOx5eFyNoZ-mWjdWNfAaRWKckWG4biGdYV=
TuJRQMlTybAupO5SLdr320m-Mi2RuD856ttEPg3HLupUgRE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8v1hQa5w7kGOx5eFyNoZ-mWjdWNfAaRWKckWG4biGdYV=
TuJRQMlTybAupO5SLdr320m-Mi2RuD856ttEPg3HNRejF3s$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8v1hQa5w7kGOx5eFyNoZ-mWjdWNfAaRWKckWG4biGdYV=
TuJRQMlTybAupO5SLdr320m-Mi2RuD856ttEPg3HEVm9kdY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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