Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jan 11 2025 16:51:46 ACUS02 KWNS 111651 SWODY2 SPC AC 111649 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ....Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ...Kerr.. 01/11/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .