Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 10 2025 19:38:07 ACUS01 KWNS 101937 SWODY1 SPC AC 101936 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ....20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ...Kerr.. 01/10/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ....Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .