Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 10 2025 15:37:22

FOUS30 KWBC 101536
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1036 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 10 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Developing surface low center is just east of the mouth of the
Mississippi as of 15Z and will slowly shift east over the FL
Panhandle through this evening. Strong on-shore moisture transport
over the leading warm front which is currently along the MS/AL/FL=20
Panhandle coasts will continue to provide a focus for development.
This front will push inland a little in advance of the low which
does increase the heavy rain risk for Mobile and Pensacola through
midday. PW of 1.6" increasing to 1.7" over the next couple hours
along with deep layer warm cloud processes will continue to support
hourly rainfall rates of 0.75 to 1" as seen along the coastal
border of MS/AL in the past hour. The front is oriented orthogonal
to the inflow which may allow repeating activity and 2" in three
hours as indicated by the 12Z NAMnest. However, as areas to the=20
east have had less than an inch over the past 5 days, there is=20
little antecedent risk in this hard region to flash flood. The=20
Marginal Risk was trimmed from Louisiana since the low has passed=20
them and maintained downstream.

Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-duNOv8ub7mv5pT-C620DUgDg-y_zQz6KdrL5Qmp2AcC=
wg6vsElxKAmhuF2YI0wnCY-Er8ZxEo3nc6jBwrWs9BjMxBg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-duNOv8ub7mv5pT-C620DUgDg-y_zQz6KdrL5Qmp2AcC=
wg6vsElxKAmhuF2YI0wnCY-Er8ZxEo3nc6jBwrWsnDcbcV4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-duNOv8ub7mv5pT-C620DUgDg-y_zQz6KdrL5Qmp2AcC=
wg6vsElxKAmhuF2YI0wnCY-Er8ZxEo3nc6jBwrWsLO7X5uM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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