Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 09 2025 05:57:47

ACUS01 KWNS 090557
SWODY1
SPC AC 090556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning.

....Synopsis...
A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four
Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the
Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will
spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley,
with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max.

At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high
pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The
strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to
eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday
morning.

While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will
exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears
reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with
scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is
unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk
given poor lapse rates aloft.

...Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025

$$

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