Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 09 2025 00:57:22

ACUS01 KWNS 090056
SWODY1
SPC AC 090054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts
of west-central into southwestern Texas.

....Synopsis...
Temporary upper ridging will occur over the southern Plains tonight,
as the large-scale eastern trough moves out of the OH Valley, and a
deep shortwave trough swings east across northern Mexico. Given high
pressure over much of the Plains and eastern CONUS, the surface air
mass will remain relatively cool and stable.

Ahead of the Mexican wave, warming/moistening will occur atop the
cool stable layer, with expanding areas of precipitation over NM,
TX, and into OK late.

00Z soundings from EPZ to MAF already shows modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates, with little CAPE currently. However, weak elevated
instability is expected to develop overnight, primarily from the
latitude of El Paso to Midland TX southward. Even so, lift will be
weak, with only sporadic lightning flashes expected.

...Jewell.. 01/09/2025

$$

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