Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 06 2025 05:29:58

ACUS01 KWNS 060529
SWODY1
SPC AC 060528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially
severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast.

....Southeast...

Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to
the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to
deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest
model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL
Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy
will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer
Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have
advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB.
This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast
sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very
strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the
greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the
FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread
well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should
remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be
concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern
GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the
primary concern.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025

$$

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