Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 06 2025 00:36:52

ACUS01 KWNS 060036
SWODY1
SPC AC 060034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower
Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered
damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary
threats.

....01z Update...

Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas
City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This
feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a
secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central
MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection,
roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast
MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells
are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a
squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled
to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely
along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern,
and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues,
especially with supercells.

...Darrow.. 01/06/2025

$$

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