Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 06 2025 00:03:24

ACUS11 KWNS 060003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060002=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of central Louisiana...much of Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

Valid 060002Z - 060200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible across the watch area,
along with locally damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...A relatively wide squall line with embedded cells
extends from northeast MS into central LA as of 00Z. Gusty southerly
winds continue to bring warming northward ahead of the line, with
the instability/theta-e axis roughly from south-central LA to near
Jackson, MS. The warm front remains draped from eastern MS into
southwest AL.=20

Shear profiles remain strong just ahead of the cold front, with
effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. Stronger low-level shear exists
farther east into northeast MS/AL/TN, but the air mass remains
stable for surface-based parcels at this time. Hodographs do remain
quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes, given a discrete cell
and/or stronger core within the line.

Otherwise, given the relatively poor condition of the air mass even
over the northern Gulf of Mexico (where dewpoints are only in the
low to mid 60s F), it does not appear that appreciable instability
will be able to develop very far east of the existing watch, at
least over the next few hours. As such, an addition watch is not
expected, but surface trends will continue to be monitored.

...Jewell.. 01/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6RAxYC15eQmO0kubi1axFnhJMA67Dvg5cxTFMK5PWUhOzKTnPUGnkwPiheLtZMO_NmeVZlT0t=
l9hM4B1z3mYooUtM6A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30589275 31539145 32729026 33978934 34088889 33758854
            32848825 31968842 31118925 30789078 30389222 30349269
            30589275=20


=3D =3D =3D
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