Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 31 2024 15:40:22

FOUS30 KWBC 311540
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Dec 31 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 03 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A strong front associated with a compact low will approach and move
into the Pacific coast of Oregon and California late Thursday
night. IVT values from the GEFS peak at about 600 kg/ms around 12Z
Friday. While river levels have come down a bit from the recent
rainfall and atmospheric river event, expected rainfall on Day
2/Wednesday should bring levels back up and resaturate the soils.
Thus, with this next round Thursday night, the expected 2-4 inches
of rain could still cause isolated instances of flash flooding.
The front does not have a true connection to the tropics, so this
round of rain is expected to be of lighter intensity and lesser
duration than the previous A.R. event.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cyGefhW5Qn8GVXGHOl5mdW4VpTh6w-Rl2bQ_wpgQpg6=
HoMyrRtRziwgMSqoTflaGt3WEC4UNdEvS9e11tnDo61wWP0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cyGefhW5Qn8GVXGHOl5mdW4VpTh6w-Rl2bQ_wpgQpg6=
HoMyrRtRziwgMSqoTflaGt3WEC4UNdEvS9e11tnDwDlHJ8A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cyGefhW5Qn8GVXGHOl5mdW4VpTh6w-Rl2bQ_wpgQpg6=
HoMyrRtRziwgMSqoTflaGt3WEC4UNdEvS9e11tnDlXWFzl0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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