Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 30 2024 16:24:22

ACUS01 KWNS 301624
SWODY1
SPC AC 301622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....OH Valley tonight...
An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across
the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight.
Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL,
with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN.
Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the
deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection,
and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight
across the lower and middle OH Valley.  Forecast soundings show
impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite
weak with surface-based convection unlikely.  Thus the severe threat
is low.

...Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024

$$

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